Nebraska News Desk

China Labor Market Index Recovered in the Fourth Quarter of 2018

January 29
13:51 2019

BEIJING – January 29, 2019 – Zhaopin Limited (“Zhaopin” or the “Company”), a leading career platform in China focused on matching talent with skills and opportunities through their career lifecycle, and the China Institute for Employment Research (“CIER”) at Renmin University of China released the CIER Employment Index Report for the fourth quarter of 2018.

Job seekers had been facing more pressure in 2018 than in 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2018, however, the demand for labor jumped 25.42% from the previous quarter, while the number of job seekers increased merely 3.90%, bringing the CIER index up to 2.38. This meant there were 2.38 job vacancies for each unique job seeker in the fourth quarter of 2018. This still represented a slightly lower level of opportunity for job seekers on an annual basis, compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, when the CIER index was 2.91.

China’s fourth-quarter 2018 labor market highlights:

  • Due to a sharp increase in the demand for labor over the previous quarter, the CIER index was adjusted seasonally in the fourth quarter of 2018, up to 2.38, from 1.97 in the third quarter of 2018, but lower than 2.91 in the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • The education/training/college sector continued its fast growth and became the best-performing sector in the fourth quarter of 2018, outperforming the intermediary services sector.
  • The IT/Internet sector witnessed a rise in the CIER index to 5.61 in the fourth quarter of 2018, ending the declines registered for three consecutive quarters.
  • The best-performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018 were mechanic/operator, education/training, and sales, while the worst performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018 were senior management, PR/media, and project management/coordination.
  • CIER indexes for companies of all size decreased in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the same period of 2017, while CIER indexes for large-sized and micro-sized companies dropped compared to the previous quarter.
  • The CIER Index for the first quarter of 2019 is projected to drop from the fourth quarter of 2018, and is very likely to be below the level in the first quarter of 2018.


CIER index rebounded with higher job demand

The fourth quarter is usually a low season for job seekers. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the number of job seekers increased merely 3.9% from the previous quarter, but the demand for labor surged 25.42%, bringing CIER index slightly up to 2.38 from 1.97 in the third quarter of 2018.  However, the CIER index in the fourth quarter of 2018 was lower than the index of 2.91 for the fourth quarter of 2017.

Job seekers were facing more pressure in 2018 than in 2017. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the demand for labor dropped 12% year-over-year, while the number of job seekers rose 8%.

CIER index by sectors

The gap between best-performing sector and worst-performing sector narrowed in 2018 compared to 2017. The CIER index of the best-performing sector was respectively 10, 12, 16 and 14 times better than that of the worst performing sector in the four quarters of 2018, compared with respectively 29, 26, 28 and 14 times the gaps recorded in the four quarters of 2017.

The education/training/college sector became the best-performing sector in the fourth quarter of 2018 with a CIER index of 8.33. The Internet/e-commerce sector had a quarter-over-quarter increase in job demand in the fourth quarter, becoming the third best-performing sector with a CIER index of 5.61.

Ten best-performing sectors in the fourth quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

2018Q4

2018Q3

1

Education/training/college

8.33

4.75

2

Intermediary service

6.91

7.97

3

Internet/e-commerce

5.61

4.20

4

Medicine/Bioengineering

4.69

3.53

5

Insurance

4.63

6.51

6

Outsourcing service

4.52

4.07

7

Real estate/construction/building materials/engineering

4.21

3.90

8

Professional service/consulting (finance and accounting, legal and HR, etc.)

3.61

3.22

9

Hotel/catering

3.53

4.12

10

Funds/securities/futures/investment

3.32

3.01

The worst-performing sector continued to be the aerospace research and manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2018, but the CIER index increased slightly.  Energy/mineral/mining/smelting, printing/packaging/papermaking, electricity/power/water conservancy and environmental protection sectors remained on the list of the ten worst-performing sectors.

Ten worst-performing sectors in the fourth quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

2018Q4

2018Q3

1

Aerospace research and manufacturing 

0.58

0.51

2

Energy/mineral/mining/smelting

0.65

0.65

3

Printing/packaging/papermaking

0.66

0.78

4

Electricity/power/water conservancy

0.84

0.97

5

Environmental protection

0.87

0.73

6

Office supplies and equipment

0.92

1.12

7

Computer hardware

0.93

1.05

8

Tourism/Resort

0.99

0.98

9

Property management/business center

1.04

1.07

10

Instruments/apparatuses/industrial automation

1.13

0.84

The education/training/college sector continued its sharp growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 to become the best-performing sector. The sector witnessed job demand surging 24% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the demand in first-tier cities soared 32% compared to the same period in 2017. Technology development and ever-changing job responsibilities are pushing people to improve competitiveness through education and training.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for education/training/college sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

32%

Emerging first-tier cities

26%

Second-tier cities

31%

Third-tier cities

17%

The intermediary service sector remained the second best-performing sector in the fourth quarter of 2018 amid strong growth of the education/training/college sector. Recruitment demand in emerging first-tier cities surged 37% in the fourth quarter of 2018 year-over-year.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for intermediary service sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

First-tier cities

-12%

Emerging first-tier cities

37%

Second-tier cities

13%

Third-tier cities

3%

The trade/import and export sector continued the drop in job demand for four consecutive quarters. The sector saw job demand decline 40% nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2018 year-over-year, with Eastern and Western China experiencing sharper drops of 36% and 77% respectively.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for trade/import and export sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

Northeastern China

-9%

Eastern China

-36%

Central China

-5%

Western China

-77%

The real estate/construction/building materials/engineering sector returned to the list of the ten best-performing sectors in the fourth quarter of 2018. Job demand for the sector rose 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, while job demand for this sector in the Pearl River Delta increased 26%. Trading in the real estate market is expected to recover in 2019 with loosened control measures by local governments.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for the real estate/construction/building materials/engineering sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

Bohai

4%

Yangtze River Delta

4%

Pearl River Delta

26%

The IT/Internet sector witnessed a rise in the CIER index to 5.61 in the fourth quarter of 2018, ending a string of declines over three consecutive quarters. Job demand for the IT/Internet sector dropped 20% year-over-year, less than the 51% decline in the previous quarter. The job demand for online gaming declined 30% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, but job demand for IT services (system/data/maintenance) increased 3% year-over-year.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for the IT/Internet sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

Online games

-30%

Computer hardware

-11%

Computer software

-17%

Internet /e-commerce

-23%

IT services (system/data /maintenance)

3%

The finance sector had different performances in sub-sectors in the fourth quarter of 2018. The fund/securities/futures/investment became one of the ten best-performing sectors. The banking sector fell out of the list, but the job demand in the banking sector increased 27% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Year-over-year change in recruitment demand for the finance sector in the fourth quarter of 2018

Fund/securities/futures/investment

-38%

Trust/warrant/auction/pawn

-19%

Banking

27%

CIER index by occupations

The best performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018 were mechanic/operator, education/training, sales, and community/residency/housekeeping.

Ten best-performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

Mechanic/operator

25.67

2

Education/training

16.24

3

Sales

14.26

4

Community/residency/housekeeping

12.99

5

Cooking/cuisine/food research and development

9.64

6

Transportation services

8.40

7

Software/internet development/system integration

7.99

8

Supermarket/hotel/entertainment management/service

7.87

9

Biotechnology/Pharmaceuticals/Medical Equipment

7.71

10

Translation (oral and written)

7.67

The worst performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018 were senior management, PR/media, project management/coordination and sales/business administration.

Ten worst-performing occupations in the fourth quarter of 2018

Ranking

Sector

CIER index

1

Senior management

1.07

2

PR/media

1.36

3

Project management/coordination

1.41

4

Sales/business administration

1.42

5

Property management

1.45

6

Manufacturing management/operation

1.45

7

Trust/warrant/auction/pawn

1.46

8

IT management/project coordination

1.55

9

Automobile manufacturing

1.80

10

Environmental science/protection

1.81

CIER index by regions and cities

In the fourth quarter of 2018, CIER indexes for Eastern China, Central China, Western China and Northeastern China all rose from the previous quarter due to a greater increase in job demand than job applicants. Job demand declined year-over-year while job applicants increased, bringing CIER indexes down from the same period in 2017. The CIER index for Northeast China rose above 1 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

CIER index by regions

Region

4Q 2018 CIER

4Q 2017 CIER

3Q 2018 CIER

Eastern China

2.12

2.57

1.72

Central China

1.61

2.00

1.50

Western China

1.41

1.74

1.25

Northeast China

1.02

1.20

0.87

Compared with the third quarter, CIER indexes increased for emerging first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities in the fourth quarter of 2018, as job demand increased 30.4%, 37.1% and 50.3% respectively compared to the third quarter of 2018. The job demand in first-tier cities dropped compared to the last quarter with a CIER index below 1.

CIER index by cities

City

4Q 2018 CIER

4Q 2017 CIER

3Q 2018 CIER

First-tier cities

0.88

0.85

0.93

Emerging first-tier cities

1.3

1.44

1.20

Second-tier cities

2.13

2.53

1.73

Third-tier cities

2.27

3.18

1.78

CIER index by size of companies

CIER indexes for companies of all size decreased in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the same period of 2017. Large-sized companies had the highest CIER index of 2.50 in the fourth quarter of 2018, down from 2.87 in the third quarter. CIER index for micro-sized companies also fell to 1.10 in the fourth quarter from 1.23 in the third quarter.

CIER index by size of companies

Company size

4Q 2018 CIER

4Q 2017 CIER

3Q 2018 CIER

Large-sized (more than 10,000 employees)

2.50

2.61

2.87

Medium-sized (500 to 9,999 employees)

1.23

1.39

1.19

Small-sized  (20 to 499 employees)

1.02

1.34

0.92

Micro-sized (fewer than 20 employees)

1.10

1.96

1.23

CIER index by type of companies

Private companies, joint ventures and wholly foreign-owned companies were better performers in the fourth quarter of 2018 with CIER indexes above 1. The job demand for private companies and joint ventures rose 44.2% and 37.3% compared to the previous quarter.

CIER index by type of companies

Company size

4Q 2018 CIER

4Q 2017 CIER

3Q 2018 CIER

Private companies

1.41

1.63

1.16

Joint ventures

1.11

1.43

1.03

Shareholding companies

0.98

1.47

1.01

State-owned enterprises

0.80

1.30

1.03

Public companies

1.04

1.50

1.32

Wholly foreign-owned enterprises

0.99

0.93

1.39

 Labor market outlook

 The CIER Index for the first quarter of 2019 is projected to drop from the fourth quarter of 2018, and is very likely to be lower than the level in the first quarter of 2018.

Methodology and how to interpret the data

Based on data from Zhaopin’s online recruitment platform, the CIER index tracks the ratio changes between job vacancies and job seekers in a variety of industries and cities across the country, and identifies the overall trend in China’s employment market. Jointly published by Zhaopin and the CIER at Renmin University of China every quarter, the CIER index has become a leading barometer of China’s labor market and macro-economic environment.

The CIER index score is calculated by dividing the number of job vacancies during a specified period by the number of unique job seekers during the same period. A CIER index score of more than 1 indicates that the labor market is booming, with more vacancies than job seekers. A CIER index score of less than 1 indicates that the labor market competition is intensifying, with more job seekers than available vacancies.

Media Contact
Company Name: Zhaopin Limited
Contact Person: Ms. Serena Sun
Email: Send Email
Phone: (86-10) 5863 5888
Country: China
Website: https://www.zhaopin.com

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